Climate of the Past, Present and Future

A Scientific Debate
1. Auflage 2020
ISBN: 978-3-030-18950-1
Verlag: Springer

Buch, Englisch, Book, Format (B × H): 155 mm x 235 mm

The book offers a review of what science has to say about climate change, from 800,000 years ago to the next glaciation, including an analysis of its effects on past human societies. Critical of the IPCC’s one-sided version of climate change, the book highlights the importance of natural factors in addition to the suggested anthropogenic effects. It also evaluates the role of greenhouse gases in climate change from the distant past to the present day, and presents detailed evidence of periodical changes in solar activity associated with climate changes in the past. Based on published scientific literature and written to be easily understood by non-specialists, the book includes multiple specially created illustrations supporting the scientific arguments. This one-stop reference resource is intended for graduate students and general readers with some scientific background who are interested in the climate science not well reflected in other books and IPCC reports and only available in specialized journals. It is a book designed to foster scientific debate on a question of global interest.

Zielgruppe

Lower undergraduate

Autoren/Hrsg.

Vinós, Javier

Fachgebiete

• Geowissenschaften Umweltwissenschaften Klimawandel, Globale Erwärmung
• Geowissenschaften Geologie Paläontologie, Taphonomie
• Sozialwissenschaften Ethnologie | Volkskunde Ethnologie

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1 IntroductionThe grounds for concern about Modern Global WarmingReferences2 The Glacial Cycle2.1 Introduction2.2 Milankovitch Theory2.2.1 Eccentricity2.2.2 Obliquity2.2.3 Precession2.2.4 Modern interpretation of Milankovitch Theory2.3 Problems with Milankovitch Theory2.3.1 The Mid-Pleistocene transition2.3.2 The 100-kyr problem2.3.3 The causality problem2.3.4 The asymmetry problem2.3.5 The 41-kyr problem2.4 Evidence that interglacial pacing does not follow a 100-kyr cycle2.5 Evidence that obliquity, and not precession, sets the pacing of interglacials2.5.1 Obliquity controlled glaciations before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition2.5.2 Interstadials are still under obliquity control2.5.3 Temperature shows a clear response to obliquity-linked changes in 70-90° insolation2.5.4 Temperature responds poorly to precession-linked changes in insolation2.5.5 Temperature shows better phase agreement with obliquity2.5.6 Temperature changes almost perfectly match obliquity changes2.5.7 Interglacials show a duration consistent with obliquity cycles2.5.8 Obliquity-paced interglacials solve all Milankovitch Theory problems2.6 The 100-kyr ice cycle.2.7 Interglacial determination for the past million years2.8 Summer energy as the relevant insolation forcing2.9 Interglacials of atypical duration2.10 Role of obliquity in the glacial cycle2.11 Role of CO2 in the glacial cycle2.12 ConclusionsReferences3 The Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycle3.1 Introduction 3.2 Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations3.3 Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations in the Antarctic record.3.4 Does the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle have a periodicity?3.5 Conditions for the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle3.6 Consensus Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle theory and challenges 3.7 Mechanistic explanation of the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle3.8 Tidal cycles as an explanation for Dansgaard-Oeschger triggering mechanism3.9 ConclusionsReferences4 Holocene climatic variability 4.1 Introduction4.2 Holocene general climate trend4.3 The controversial role of greenhouse gases during the Holocene4.4 The Holocene Climatic Optimum4.5 The Mid-Holocene Transition and the end of the African Humid Period 4.6 The Neoglacial period4.7 Holocene climate variability4.8 Bond events and other Abrupt Climatic Events4.9 Holocene millennial cycles4.10 ConclusionsReferences5 The 2500-year Bray cycle5.1 Introduction5.2 The biological 2500-year climate cycle5.3 The glaciological 2500-year climate cycle5.4 The atmospheric 2500-year climate cycle 5.5 The oceanic 2500-year climate cycle5.6 The hydrological 2500-year climate cycle5.7 The temperature 2500-year cycle5.8 The solar variability 2500-year cycle5.9 2300-year Hallstatt versus 2500-year Bray5.10 The solar-climate relationship5.11 Solar variability effect on climate5.12 ConclusionsReferences6 The effect of abrupt climate change on human societies of the past6.1 Introduction6.2 The solar minima of the 2500-yr Bray cycle6.3 The 10.3 kyr event. The Boreal Oscillation.6.4 The 8.2 kyr climate complex6.5 The 7.7 kyr event. The Boreal/Atlantic transition6.6 The 5.2 kyr event. The Mid-Holocene Transition and the start of the Neoglacial period6.7 The 2.8 kyr event. The Sub-Boreal/Sub-Atlantic Minimum.6.8 The 0.5 kyr event. The Little Ice Age.6.9 Climatic effects of solar grand minima.6.10 ConclusionsReferences7 The elusive 1500-year Holocene cycle7.1 Introduction7.2 What must we expect of a Holocene 1500-year cycle?7.3 The 1500-year periodicity during the Holocene7.4 The oceanic 1500-year cycle 7.5 The atmospheric 1500-year cycle7.6 The 4.2 kyr event7.7 Storminess, drift ice and tidal effects7.8 Ending the confusion about the 1500-year cycle7.9 ConclusionsReferences8 Centennial to millennial solar cycles8.1 Introduction8.2 The millennial Eddy solar cycle8.3 The 210-year de Vries solar cycle8.4 The 88-year Gleissberg solar cycle 8.5 Other solar periodicities8.6 The 100-year Feynman and 50-year Pentadecadal solar cycles8.7 Solar cycles interrelation8.8 ConclusionsReferences9 Greenhouse gases and climate change9.1 Introduction9.2 Towards a greenhouse theory of climate9.3 Past atmospheric changes and climate evolution9.3.1 The Faint Sun Paradox9.3.2 Phanerozoic climate9.3.3 Earth's proposed thermostat9.3.4 Cenozoic climate9.3.5 Phanerozoic climatic cycles9.4 Radiative forcing and anthropogenic effect9.5 Climate feedbacks 9.6 The CO2 hypothesis of climate change9.7 Climate change attribution9.8 ConclusionsReferences10 Natural climate change mechanisms 10.1 Introduction10.2 Length-of-day and climate10.3 Solar signal pathways10.4 Solar control of El Niño Southern Oscillation10.5 Solar control of global climate10.6 Volcanic effects on climate and climatic effects on volcanism10.7 The 50-70-year oscillation and the Stadium Wave hypothesis10.8 ConclusionsReferences11 Modern Global Warming11.1 Introduction11.2 Modern Global Warming is consistent with Holocene climatic cycles11.3 Modern Global Warming is within Holocene variability11.4 Modern Global Warming coincides with an increase in solar activity11.5 Modern Global Warming displays an unusual cryosphere response11.6 Extremely unusual CO2 levels during the last quarter of Modern Global Warming11.7 The relationship between CO2 levels and temperature during Modern Global Warming11.8 Uniform variation in sea level during Modern Global Warming11.9 Modern Global Warming and the CO2 hypothesis11.10 Modern Global Warming attribution 11.11 ConclusionsReferences12 21st century climate change12.1 Introduction12.2 Changes in CO2 emissions and atmospheric levels. 12.3 Fossil fuel changes.12.4 Changes in solar activity.12.5 A mid-21st century solar grand minimum is highly improbable12.6 Changes in global surface average temperature anomaly.12.7 Consequences for Arctic sea ice12.8 Consequences for sea-level rise12.9 Other climate change consequences for the 21st century.12.10 ProjectionsReferences13 The next glaciation13.1 Introduction13.2 Interglacial evolution13.3 Studying the future by looking at the past.13.4 MIS 11c is a poor Holocene analog13.5 The long interglacial hypothesis13.6 The fat tail of anthropogenic CO2 adjustment time 13.7 Glacial inception in the Holocene13.8 The next glaciation13.9 ConclusionsReferences