Vogler-Ludwig / Düll The German Labour Market in the Year 2030

A Strategic View on Demography, Employment and Education
1. Auflage 2013
ISBN: 978-3-7639-5282-3
Verlag: wbv Media
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Deutsch, 199 Seiten, PDF

What will be the shape of the German economy and its labour market in 20 years time? Beyond combining qualitative scenarios and mathematical methods in a professional forecast, the report raises the questions how politics, entrepreneurs and the labour force should act in face of demographic change and international competition. In a breakdown by 44 economic sector, 88 occupational groups and 27 fields of vocational training, the study provides detailed insights into the future of work in Germany.
The results show that Germany will transform from a service-oriented into a knowledge-oriented economy with new jobs in business services, financial services and education, health and social services. Manufacturing, trade and transport, and public service, however, will clearly reduce the number of jobs. The growth potential of the German economy will be determined by skills shortages: The higher the investments in human capital the better the opportunities for growth.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Vogler-Ludwig, Kurt

Düll, Nicola

Fachgebiete

• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Volkswirtschaftslehre Volkswirtschaftslehre Allgemein Wirtschaftsstatistik, Demographie
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Volkswirtschaftslehre Volkswirtschaftslehre Allgemein Wirtschaftsprognose
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Volkswirtschaftslehre Volkswirtschaftslehre Allgemein Arbeitsmarkt

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;The German Labour Marketin the Year 2030;1
1.1;On behalf of;4
1.2;Imprint;5
1.3;Contents;6
1.4;Figures;10
1.5;Tables;12
1.6;Summary;14
1.6.1;Development of labour supply;15
1.6.2;Demand for workers;22
1.6.3;Labour market performance and the shortage of skilled workers;27
1.6.4;Conclusions and recommendations;29
1.7;Blueprint of the forecasting model;32
1.8;1 The labour market in the year 2030 – demographics and labour supply determine development;40
1.8.1;1.1 Turnaround in employment;40
1.8.2;1.2 Slight loss in labour market dynamics;43
1.8.3;1.3 Economic development;45
1.8.3.1;1.3.1 Overall economic output;45
1.8.3.2;1.3.2 Demand components;46
1.8.3.3;1.3.3 Competitiveness and foreign trade;48
1.8.3.4;1.3.4 The euro crisis and growth of the German economy;49
1.8.3.5;1.3.5 Inflation and raw material prices;50
1.8.4;1.4 Two long-term scenarios as development alternatives;51
1.8.4.1;1.4.1 Scenario 1: Growth and Work;52
1.8.4.2;1.4.2 Scenario 2: Welfare and Happiness;54
1.8.4.3;1.4.3 Our choice;56
1.9;2 Labour demand – from a service-based economy into a knowledge-based economy;58
1.9.1;2.1 Sectoral change in employment;58
1.9.1.1;2.1.1 Goods producing sectors;61
1.9.1.2;2.1.2 Trade and transport;64
1.9.1.3;2.1.3 Business service sector;64
1.9.1.4;2.1.4 Financial services;66
1.9.1.5;2.1.5 Private and public services;67
1.9.2;2.2 Employment and productivity;69
1.9.3;2.3 Structural change in occupations;70
1.9.3.1;2.3.1 Method;70
1.9.3.2;2.3.2 Overall development;71
1.9.3.3;2.3.3 Occupational profile for the agricultural sector: ecological reorganisation;73
1.9.3.4;2.3.4 Occupational profile for the manufacturing sector: from a manufacturer to a technical service provider;74
1.9.3.5;2.3.5 Occupational profile for the trade and transport sector: global trading with e-commerce;76
1.9.3.6;2.3.6 Occupational profile for the business services sector: rationalising clerical work;78
1.9.3.7;2.3.7 Occupational profile for the public administration sector: cutting jobs in almost all occupations;79
1.9.3.8;2.3.8 Occupation profile for the social services sector: adapting to the ageing population;80
1.9.4;2.4 Skills-based and qualification-based structural change;81
1.9.4.1;2.4.1 Overall development;81
1.9.4.2;2.4.2 Tertiary education graduates: strong demand for lawyers, economists and social scientists;84
1.9.4.3;2.4.3 Dual vocational training;85
1.9.4.4;2.4.4 Graduates from technical colleges;87
1.9.5;2.5 Replacement demand;88
1.9.5.1;2.5.1 Overall results;88
1.9.5.2;2.5.2 Long-term replacement demand and overall demand for occupations;90
1.9.5.3;2.5.4 Long-term replacement demand by age;96
1.10;3 Labour supply – the challenge of an ageing population;98
1.10.1;3.1 Population development;98
1.10.2;3.2 Increasing labour market participation among womenand older people;100
1.10.2.1;3.2.1 Labour market participation of women;100
1.10.2.2;3.2.2 Labour market participation among men;102
1.10.2.3;3.2.3 Conditions for an increased participation rate;103
1.10.3;3.3 Development of labour supply;105
1.10.4;3.4 Working hours;108
1.10.5;3.5 Qualification and occupational structure of the labour force;110
1.10.5.1;3.5.1 Labour force by formal training;110
1.10.5.2;3.5.2 Labour force by occupation;111
1.10.6;3.6 Labour market dynamics: labour force inflows and labour force outflows;114
1.10.6.1;3.6.1 Preliminary remarks: methodology;114
1.10.6.2;3.6.2 Overall development;116
1.10.6.3;3.6.3 More university graduates from the educational system;118
1.10.6.4;3.6.4 An increasing level of education among immigrants;121
1.10.6.5;3.6.5 Occupational mobility of the workforce;126
1.10.6.6;3.6.6 Unemployment;129
1.10.6.7;3.6.7 Inflow of non-employed persons into employment;131
1.10.7;3.7 Summary;132
1.11;4 Bottlenecks in the labour market;134
1.11.1;4.1 Basic considerations;134
1.11.2;4.2 Labour market balance by formal vocational training;137
1.11.3;4.3 Labour market balance according to occupation;140
1.11.4;4.4 Overall ranking;144
1.12;5 Conclusions and recommendations;146
1.13;6 Bibliography;156
1.14;Annex;158
1.14.1;1 Economic developments;158
1.14.1.1;1.1 Population by age and gender;158
1.14.1.2;1.2 Economic indicators;159
1.14.1.3;1.3 Productivity by sector;160
1.14.1.4;1.4 Average wages by sector;161
1.14.2;2 Labour market developments;162
1.14.2.1;2.1 Labour force;162
1.14.2.1.1;2.1.1 Labour force by age and gender;162
1.14.2.1.2;2.1.2 Labour force by occupation;163
1.14.2.1.3;2.1.3 Labour force by formal training;165
1.14.2.1.4;2.1.4 Participation rates by age and gender;166
1.14.2.2;2.2 Persons employed;167
1.14.2.2.1;2.2.1 Persons employed by sector;167
1.14.2.2.2;2.2.2 Persons employed by occupation;168
1.14.2.2.3;2.2.3 Persons employed by formal training;170
1.14.2.3;2.3 Replacement demand;171
1.14.2.3.1;2.3.1 Replacement demand by age;171
1.14.2.3.2;2.3.2 Replacement demand by occupation;172
1.14.2.3.3;2.3.3 Replacement demand by formal training;174
1.14.2.4;2.4 Total demand;175
1.14.2.4.1;2.4.1 Total demand by occupation;175
1.14.2.4.2;2.4.2 Total demand by formal training;177
1.14.2.4.3;2.4.3 Total demand rate by occupation;178
1.14.2.4.4;2.4.4 Total demand rate by formal training;180
1.14.2.5;2.5 Labour force inflows and outflows;181
1.14.2.5.1;2.5.1 Labour force inflows by occupation;181
1.14.2.5.2;2.5.2 Labour force outflows by occupation;183
1.14.2.5.3;2.5.3 Labour force inflows by formal training;185
1.14.2.5.4;2.5.4 Labour force outflows by formal training;186
1.14.3;3 Classifications and aggregations;187
1.14.3.1;3.1 Classification of 88 occupations;187
1.14.3.2;3.2 Aggregation of 88 occupations;189
1.14.3.3;3.3 Classification of 44 sectors;191
1.14.3.4;3.4 Aggregation of 44 sectors;192
1.14.3.5;3.5 Classification of 29 formal training categories;193
1.14.3.6;3.6 Aggregation of 29 formal training categories;194
1.15;Bibliography (Annex);196
1.16;Abbreviations;198