Dale The Politicos Guide to the 2015 General Election

1. Auflage 2014
ISBN: 978-1-84954-807-6
Verlag: Biteback Publishing
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: 6 - ePub Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 464 Seiten

As the 2015 general election looms on the horizon, the only thing anyone can seem to agree on is that it will be unpredictable, not least because, for the first time in our history, we are experiencing the brave new world of four-party politics. Here, in one volume, is everything you need to know about what is shaping up to be one of the most exciting general elections of the last twenty years. In this unique guide to the state of the parties, policies and polls, you'll find expert predictions and commentary from political pundits, as well as all the facts and figures you need to make an informed decision at the ballot box. This essential guide includes: - Analysis of key marginal seats - Information about demographics, voting intentions and past electoral behaviour - Examples of historical precedent - Lists of prospective candidates - Profiles of the main party leaders - Articles on the role of social media and the traditional media - Breakdowns of regional and constituency data.A book that will appeal to enthusiastic politicos and inquisitive voters alike, this is the essential guide to the most eagerly awaited general election in recent history.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Dale, Iain

Leseproben

State of the leaders

Isabel Hardman

DAVID CAMERON

Given the rough-and-tumble he’s had with his party over the past few years, David Cameron is heading into this election in surprisingly good shape. Troublesome backbenchers who had given him grief every step of the way through his premiership have faded into the background, for the time being at least. Some have cheered up because they’ve seen the improving economic situation, Labour’s failure to move the polls and the Prime Minister’s 2013 referendum pledge as a sign that Conservative victory of one sort or another is possible next year. The most dangerous figure, David Davis, is far less of a threat to Cameron than he once was, with former supporters melting away. One told me recently that ‘You have got to have some sort of following to do something, but any following he might have had has evaporated because all his predictions of oblivion under Cameron haven’t come true.’ Davis’s interventions after the European elections made far less of a dent than they might have done: many of his sympathisers are simply not interested in causing trouble for the leadership.

Other MPs have required a little more work to bring into line: Andrew Bridgen, for instance, who once hated the Prime Minister so much that he was happy to make public his letter to 1922 Committee Chair Graham Brady calling for a leadership contest. Bridgen retracted that letter this spring after a concerted effort from No. 10 to listen to him and encourage him to back the Prime Minister. The work of this reconciliation team in Downing Street continues, and Cameron himself continues to try harder with his MPs. They accept that he will never really be a natural people person, particularly with people he finds a bit dull or unimportant. But they appreciate his effort, both in holding briefing meetings where Lynton Crosby reassures the party with PowerPoint presentations about strategy, and in inviting more MPs around to Downing Street. His PPS Gavin Williamson’s extraordinary energy has come in handy on this front, too.

But Cameron must not mistake the improved mood in his party for loyalty. Many of those who were his harshest critics are pulling together only for the sake of the Conservatives, not the Prime Minister himself. They will still turn on him after the election if he tries to enter another coalition. It’s not just the troublesome backbenchers: influential ministers have made it known to their colleagues that they would vote against another partnership with the Lib Dems if they were offered a secret ballot to approve a deal.

He also risks giving the impression of stalling on his plans for European reform. He has not appointed a full-time negotiator to work on his behalf and his deliberations over whom to appoint as European Commissioner seemed more focused on pragmatic considerations about by-elections and ministers at the end of their Westminster careers than the key role the new commissioner can play in a renegotiation. His view that he will be campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU because he knows for sure that he can get the reformed Europe and reformed relationship with Europe that he wants has not been scrutinised as fiercely as it might have been by backbenchers, because backbenchers are saving that sort of forceful behaviour for after the 2015 election. But the Prime Minister’s confidence suggests either that he has such a modest vision of a renegotiated settlement that it really will be very easy to get what he wants, or that he is quite deluded: European leaders do recognise that the EU must change, but they are not quite keen for the changes that Cameron is suggesting.

Part of the problem for Cameron is that he’s just not that ideological about Europe. Neither is he ideological about much else. This sounded quite nice in opposition: ‘ideological’ is often used as a synonym for ‘dogmatic’ and ‘stubborn’. But it does mean that it’s easy for this Prime Minister to U-turn, because his initial ideas never had an intellectual underpinning in the first place. Hence his shift from greenery in opposition to ‘taking out the green crap’ in government. Some of the ideas he adopted before entering government deserved to be shrugged off, but perhaps the Conservative leader could approach the 2015 election with greater conviction about what he wants to do with the next five years, and what’s driving him to do it.

ED MILIBAND

No one could accuse Ed Miliband of lacking conviction. The Labour leader boasted that he had greater ‘intellectual self-confidence’ than David Cameron, and while it sounded a pompous thing for someone who graduated with an upper second to say to a first-class graduate, it’s true. Ever since the Labour autumn conference in 2013, Miliband has shown the courage of his convictions by the bucketful. He spent the first few years of leading his party talking about his family background and producing long, confusing and off-putting arguments about producers and predators. Then he announced price controls in the energy sector, and suddenly began to look a whole lot more confident.

Miliband finds himself in a nice groove where he can announce appealing retail offer policies, and sit back and watch the government panic for a few weeks before announcing something to relieve the pressure he’s put on ministers. He’s certainly made politics more interesting by moving to the left. The problem is that the energy price freeze, plans to improve the private rented sector and an eye-watering pledge for all patients to see their GP within forty-eight hours have not translated into eye-watering poll leads. Perhaps this is because, as his election strategy chief Douglas Alexander claims, the era of four-party politics means Labour cannot expect runaway poll leads in the run-up to the general election. But perhaps it’s because voters are worried about something bigger than the nice-sounding pledges that Miliband throws at them. Labour still needs to work out a way of talking about the cuts it would make after 2015 without resorting to fine language about long-termism. Cuts that are brutal and produce short-term savings are needed, yet naturally frontbenchers don’t want to talk about them. But the public will struggle to believe in pledges about GP access if they can’t trust Labour to manage the public finances properly.

The low poll leads have not translated into party panic, yet. But grumblings won’t just be directed at the party leader. Ed Miliband has invested heavily in his MPs. Even those who didn’t support him in 2010 are won over by his personal warmth and his desire to consult them. Indeed, his consultation exercises in the run-up to big changes of tack on issues such as immigration and welfare put Whitehall departments to shame when it comes to the amount of time the Labour leader and his team spend talking any backbencher who is vaguely interested in the policy through the details.

This means that not only can Miliband set his party on a course where it pledges to be tougher than the Tories on welfare and immigration, but that when the chips are down he can rely on his party colleagues not to stick their heads above the parapet immediately. He can’t take that for granted forever, though: more people were rattled and became chatty by the European elections. He has been let down consistently by underperforming shadow Cabinet members, and this problem has not been solved by reshuffles. Some of the least proactive or most troublesome members of his team are the most difficult to move, such as Yvette Cooper and Ed Balls. So this leader is not in as strong a state as he could be, because of the team around him.

NICK CLEGG

Nick Clegg does have some similar personnel problems to Miliband – mostly in the form of the Business Secretary Vince Cable, but the Liberal Democrat leader is heading into the election having won many battles in the war for the soul of his party, albeit without any marked improvement in the polls. Cable is no longer such an authoritative figure after a bruising 2013 conference season in which he appeared to have a hissy fit and a sulk over the position the party was taking on the economy. His ally Lord Oakeshott, whose plots to remove whoever is the leader of the day and install his preferred candidate are almost as old as the party itself, has also gone. Oakeshott’s departure from the Lib Dems in May means Clegg no longer has a powerful parliamentarian briefing against him at every turn. He will continue to face grumbles from the Social Liberal Forum, a left-leaning faction within the Lib Dems who have never supported Clegg’s vision for the party or indeed his leadership. But there are insufficient numbers of MPs keen to remove their leader, and members don’t seem hungry for a leadership contest either.

One question for Clegg as he prepares for 2015 is which party he’d instinctively rather do business with, in the event of a coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives being viable. Conventional wisdom is that it is easier for the Liberal Democrats to do a deal with Labour this time around, given the angst that sharing a pillow with the Tories has provoked among the grassroots. But the Lib Dem leader knows that it’s not that simple. In coalition with the Tories, the Lib Dems have been able to portray themselves as the nice, sweet party who stop savage Tory cuts and rein in the worst free market instincts of their partners. But in coalition with Labour, they would be the party blocking new school building projects and other nice goodies that voters quite like but which the government may not be able to afford. The clue is in the line Clegg himself offered at his party’s conference when describing...