Espenshade / Serow The Economic Consequences of Slowing Population Growth

1. Auflage 2013
ISBN: 978-1-4832-6606-0
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 308 Seiten, Web PDF

The Economic Consequences of Slowing Population Growth is a collection of papers dealing with the economic implications of a sustained low fertility rate on an industrialized country. The book reviews the situation prevailing in the United States including the country's demographic trends and prospects. The text also presents the uncertainties, the unknown, and the known economic consequences of low fertility as analyzed from previous generations. One paper examines the lessons that can be learned from a zero population growth in Europe by comparing theory and reality. This paper expounds on the social and economic effects while transitioning to a zero growth rate. Other papers examine the inter-relationships between unemployment, inflation, and economic policy. These papers also give recommendations to cut unemployment levels without causing inflation in the process. Other papers discuss social security and other needs of an aging population. One paper examines rising concerns over population movements in times of slower U.S. population growth; the author cites data reflecting migration trends and population declines in several metropolitan areas. The text can prove useful for sociologists, social workers, public health services officers, and public economists.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Espenshade, Thomas J.

Serow, William J.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Front Cover;1
2;The Economic Consequences of Slowing Population Growth;4
3;Copyright Page ;5
4;Table of Contents;6
5;List of Contributors;10
6;Foreword;12
7;Preface;14
8;List of Tables;18
9;List of Illustrations;20
10;Chapter 1. The Demographic Dimensions of Slowing Population Growth in the United States;22
10.1;Trends and Prospects in U.S. Population Growth;23
10.2;Changes in Age Composition;26
10.3;Spatial Redistribution of the Population;29
10.4;Conclusion;31
11;Chapter 2. The Economics of Declining Population Growth: An Assessment of the Current Literature;34
11.1;Demographic Aspects;36
11.2;Theoretical Developments;37
11.3;Empirical Studies;43
11.4;Policy Implications and Additional Suggestions for Further Research;58
12;Chapter 3. Zero Population Growth Now: The Lessons from Europe;62
12.1;Zero Population Growth: Theory and Reality;62
12.2;Social and Economic Implications during the Transition to Zero Population Growth;72
12.3;Future Implications of Zero Population Growth or Progressive Decline;80
13;Chapter 4. The Fiscal Policy Dilemma: Cyclical Swings Dominated by Supply-Side Constraints;92
13.1;Amendments to the Secular Stagnation and Kuznets Cycle Models;95
13.2;A Simplified Model of Supply-Side Imbalances;97
13.3;Estimating the Nonaccelerating-Inflation Rate of Unemployment;101
13.4;The Capital Stock Bottleneck;106
13.5;The Potential Impact of the Fertility Twist and Slowing Population Growth;112
13.6;The Role of Fiscal Policy;116
14;Chapter 5. Is Secular Stagnation Just around the Corner? A Survey of the Influences of Slowing Population Growth upon Investment Demand;122
14.1;Introduction, Summary, and Outline of Conclusions;122
14.2;Population and Investment Demand in the Short Run;125
14.3;Population and Investment Demand in the Long Run;129
14.4;Slower Population Growth and Investment Demand during Trend Transitions: The Long-Swing Hypothesis Revisited;132
14.5;Emerging Characteristics of the New Economic-Demographic Era;141
15;Chapter 6. The Effects of Slowing Population Growth on Long-Run Economic Growth in the United States during the Next Half Century;148
15.1;Determinants of Economic Growth;149
15.2;Results;163
15.3;Conclusions and Qualifications;174
16;Chapter 7. Social Security and Aging Populations;178
16.1;Slowing Population Growth and the Social Security System;180
16.2;Slowing Population Growth and Pay-As-You-Go;204
16.3;Alternative Financing Approaches;208
16.4;The Case for Reform and the Objectives of Social Security;211
17;Chapter 8. The Impact of Demographic Change on the Distribution of Earned Income and the AFDC Program: 1975–1985;218
17.1;Introduction;218
17.2;Critical Features of DYNASIM;219
17.3;Key Assumptions and Mechanics of the Simulations;223
17.4;Simulation Results;228
18;Chapter 9. Emerging Public Concerns over U.S. Population Movements in an Era of Slowing Growth;246
18.1;Introduction;246
18.2;The Contrasting Growth Trends in Population and Households;249
18.3;New Migration Trends;251
18.4;Population Decline in Individual Metropolitan Areas;257
18.5;Emerging Concerns;266
19;Chapter 10. Policy Implications and Future Research Needs;268
19.1;Introduction;268
19.2;Summary Findings;271
19.3;Policy Implications;279
19.4;Further Research Needs;280
20;References;284
21;Index;302