Kupers / Wilkinson The Essence of Scenarios

Learning from the Shell Experience
1. Auflage 2014
ISBN: 978-90-485-2209-5
Verlag: De Gruyter
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 185 Seiten

The origins of Shell scenarios: stories designed to help break the entrenched belief that companies assume that the future will look like its current situation.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Kupers, Roland

Wilkinson, Angela

Fachgebiete

• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Management Unternehmensführung
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Management Unternehmensorganisation & Entwicklungsstrategien

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Acknowledgements 7 Preface by Peter Ho 9 Introduction: The ŸGentle ArtŒ 13 Sources 17 I A Unique Legacy 19 II Shell Scenarios — A History, 1965-2013 25 Experimentation and Emergence, 1965-1981 25 Moving Closer to the Business, 1982-1990 44 Culture Change, 1990-1999 51 Cheaper, Deeper Thinking, 1999-2006 58 New Pathways to ‘Challenging and Heard’, 2006-2013 67 III The Essence of the Shell Art 75 1 Improving Intuition 77 2 Plausible, Not Probable 80 3 Striking the Balance Between Relevant and Challenging 84 4 Pragmatic, Not Ideological 85 5 Realizing the Role of the Future in the Present 88 6 Focused and Targeted 89 7 Engaging the Client in the Process 91 8 Memorable, Yet Disposable 93 9 Storytelling — the Heart of Strategic Conversation 95 10 The Necessity of Numbers 97 11 The Creation of a Scenario Team 101 12 Serving as Door-Openers and Adding Value to External Relationships 104 13 Fostering a Culture of Openness and Curiosity 106 14 Managing Disagreement as an Asset 108 15 Providing Value within a Broader Management System 109 IV Looking Ahead 113 From ‘Seeing’ to ‘Seeding’, Not Growing Better Futures 114 Beyond Products to Value-Added Services 115 The Future of Shell Scenarios 117 Business Lens 121 Reaching Out 122 V Conclusion 123 The Evolution Continues — the Essence Remains 127 Epilogue: Scenario Team Leaders 131 Afterword 135 A Timeline 137 B Summary of Scenarios 139 Index 167

Über Autor(innen)

Kupers Roland:
Roland Kupers is an associate fellow in the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford.Wilkinson Angela:
Angela Wilkinson, PhD (Physics), is Associate Fellow, Said Business School, University of Oxford and former Director of Foresight for the OECD. She is a recognised and respected global leading scholar and practitioner in scenario planning and foresight. She spent a decade in Shell's global scenario team.